Last night I got home after a few days of travel and turned on the TV see Alex Honnold climbing a 101-story skyscraper without ropes live on Netflix.

It was both gut-twisting hard to watch and humanity-level inspiring. My palms were literally sweating while I sat on the couch. The live comments on Twitter were full of people saying things like ‘this is truly one of the most impressive things anyone has ever done on camera’:

Then someone responded to a comment like this with a stark rebuttal: “This is a great example of most people's inability to distinguish between risk vs. consequence.""

The point is:
> Alex Honnold’s 1,000+ ft free-solo climb was extremely high consequence (fall=death)
> but it was actually very low risk (he’s done 1000+ climbs more difficult than this)

I think launching a startup is the opposite:
> Extremely high risk (you will most-likely fail, odds are not in your favor)
> Shockingly low consequence (in fact the worst scenarios are still very favorable)

Let me explain.
Risk = probability something bad happens
Consequence = how bad that thing is

Early stage startups — risk is high, most fail, your initial idea is almost never what actually pans out. But the consequence (especially early in your career?) incredibly low.

When I quit my job in consulting at 24 to start Uptrends, I was scared yes. It felt like climbing a mountain with no rope. In 2024 my bank account went under $100 for the first time since I was like 13.

But I knew I could always go back. And that if I did fail I would have learned more about the world and gained more skills + agency than I possibly could’ve without running my own business. The fear was real the danger was not.

Paul Graham calls this ‘staying upwind’ - working on things that maximize your future options. This is what startup experience does for you:

In contrast downwind jobs (ex: ‘churning out Java at a bank’) pay well precisely because they’re downwind. The further entrenched you are the more it pays. The market essentially compensates you for the optionality youre giving up.

Upwind work - startups, new tech, hard problem - pay less in the moment but the consequence is that you’re building potential energy. You’re accumulating options not cashing them in.

Stay upwind as long as you can (Paul says until you have to pay for kids) then cash in that potential energy when you need it.

When you’re young you CAN AFFORD TO FAIL because you’re expenses + dependent responsibilities are low (no kids, no mortgage) - the consequences of failure are what? lost time? wounded ego? a good story?

Some might say you owe it to yourself to yourself, that that lack of responsibility and the freedom to fail is a gift that you’d be cheating for not giving it a try. Dont cheat the gift.

Thinking of Alex Honnold - any climber will tell you his free solo of El Cap was 100x more dangerous than his Taipei 101 ascent (like genuinely risky) - that Taipei 101 was mostly spectacle.

To an onlooker, starting your first company looks the same. Seems terrifying, parents worry, friends think you’re done for sacrificing a 6-figure salary + benefits + 3wks vacation.

But it is a risk worthy of the consequences. The startup may fail. You will not.

Separate risk from consequence. Separate fear from dnager.

The only real danger is never trying. Thats a failure you cant recover from.

Peace,
Ramsey